Ali Emir ADIGÜZEL
Approximately 60 million mt of Turkey’s 100 million mt cement capacity was consumed in the local market. Incorrect economic policies and management errors implemented in recent years have led to a decline in cement exports.
The Rise and Fall of the Turkish Cement Sector: The Story of How a World Leader Fell Behind
For many years, Turkey was an important leader for world cement exports. With an annual installed capacity of 100 million tons and a domestic consumption of approximately 60 million tons, Turkey created an export capacity of at least 20 million tons every year. This volume was historically distributed among clinker, bulk, and bagged cement, making Türkiye a strategic leading cement exporter in the Mediterranean, African and American markets.
However, recent developments have shown that Turkey’s lack of a long-term export strategy is eroding this leadership. Cement prices in the domestic market in Turkey have skyrocketed in dollar terms, Turks have neglected exports, and rival countries have caught up with Türkiye in terms of price, reliability, and infrastructure, or even left it behind.
2020: Pandemic Impact and Reactive Export Increase
With the COVID-19 crisis, domestic consumption in Turkey has fallen to 55 million tons. The 5 million tons of surplus that emerged has directed factories to export. Clinker prices have fallen to 27 USD/ton FOB levels, and producers have accepted almost all demands. However, during this period, long-term market planning and customer relations were ignored. While rapid sales were targeted, strategic position was ignored.
Year 2021: Demand Exploded in the World, New Exporters Emerged
While the economic recovery was experienced in 2021, the market turned completely in favor of the seller, that is, the exporter. Prices quickly rose to 35-40 USD/ton. However, this time Algeria and Egypt took the stage. However, Turkish producers denied these developments and risked losing some markets. For example, clinker exports fell to 12.5 million tons.
Year 2022: The Impact of War and Global Insecurity
With the Russia-Ukraine war, coal prices skyrocketed from $80 to $300. Costs increased rapidly. Despite Turkey continuing to use cheap Russian coal, it did not use this advantage and increased its prices abnormally, creating a loss of confidence in buyers. They had to continue to buy cement, but at the same time they looked for alternative new sources. And Egypt and Algeria, which use subsidized natural gas as fuel, quickly filled this gap left by Türkiye. American buyers increased imports from countries such as Saudi Arabia and Vietnam.
Year 2023: Election, Inflation and Earthquake Triangle in Turkey
Public spending increased after the election economy and the major earthquake. Domestic demand exploded in Turkey, and exports decreased significantly again. Clinker exports fell to 8.5 million tons. During the same period, Egypt and Algeria accelerated their port and logistics investments for international trade.
Cement exports from Turkey to the United States also began to decline.
Year 2024: Exchange Rate Pressure and Moving Away from Exports
The fixed exchange rate policy increased both domestic market prices and production costs. Cement price in Turkey rose above $85 pmt, and local cement began to be sold at even higher prices than in Europe. Exports ceased to be attractive for Turks. Bagged cement buyers began to shift to alternative markets. At the same time, Turkish government decided to apply an embargo to Israel which was an important export market. Clinker exports fell to 5 million tons. Cement buyers in exports turned to other alternative sources. However, Turkey has a serious excess cement production capacity. While even half of the current cement capacity is sufficient to meet Türkiye’s needs, no one cared about the loss of export markets.
2025: And the Large Market Share Lost
According to TurkÇimento data, Turkey’s cement production capacity has surged to 150 million tons!, while actual domestic consumption needs do not exceed 65 million tons. Turkey now has a cement capacity nearly two and a half times greater than its internal demand.
In this situation, exporting the surplus is not a choice — it is a necessity.
Yet first-quarter figures paint a worrying picture:
- Bulk cement exports: 2.2 million tons,
- Bagged cement exports: 1.0 million tons,
- Clinker exports: 1.6 million tons.
At this rate, Turkey will struggle to reach even 20 million tons of total exports by the end of 2025 — a dangerously low figure for an industry sitting on massive overcapacity.
Without urgent strategic action, Turkey’s cement sector faces the risk of entering a period of severe contraction, with inevitable plant closures and permanent loss of global market share.
In the meantime, the largest cement producer in the world, China enters cement/clinker export market after a long pause targeting African clinker markets in competition with Turkey.
Turkish exporters are dependent on the USA as it is the single largest cement export destination for Turkey. For example, companies such as Akçansa and Medcem are largest exporters, they are losing market share despite exporting higher quality cement to the USA at 50 dollars pmt, compared to the 85 dollars they sell in the domestic market. While many opportunities in the US market are being missed by Turkish exporters, Egypt, on the other hand, has gained strong momentum in cement exports with its new port infrastructure, automatic packaging systems and US quality approvals. Egypt is investing in new export silos and increasing its capacity.
In the meantime, Turkey is rapidly losing cement export markets because it cannot compete on price anymore.
Why Does Turkey Need a Long-Term Export Strategy?
Turkey’s export success has been based on competitive prices, quality, and excess production capacity until now. This structure no longer works. Sustainable exports cannot be achieved without long-term reliable price stability, as well as logistics, brand reliability, trade diplomacy and infrastructure investment. An approach that gives up on exports when domestic market prices are incredibly attractive is not rational in the long term. When the economy in Türkiye returns to normal and exchange rates reach realistic levels, Turks will start exporting they will say let us do it, but it will be too late, export markets will have been taken over by others.
Conclusion: A Clear Warning for Turkey’s Cement Industry
Turkey should now abandon short-term, reactive policies and adopt a planned, long-term, and sustainable export approach. It should not be forgotten that trust and continuity in global cement trade are much more valuable than price competition.
The artificial fixed exchange rate policy implemented in Türkiye has created serious pressures on cement exports, as in many sectors, and weakened competitive power. This situation has caused the rapid loss of markets gained in the past and made it extremely difficult to regain these markets in the future.
Providing freight subsidies to exporters, as in the past, applying a special exchange rate for exports and, most importantly, determining exchange rates according to market realities as required by a free-market economy will be the basic elements of the solution.
Otherwise, Türkiye’s cement sector, which has a serious excess capacity, may face a dark future. Türkiye will either adopt a competitive, long-term strategy that prioritizes exports and is supported by realistic exchange rate policies, or it will be forced to a crossroads where it will be obliged to seriously consider to close half of its existing cement factories.
